- Although the US Dollar has seen a broad corrective setback into the latter part of May, we still see the underlying bias for a return to US$ strength.
- In our report here from 7th May we highlighted the skewed USDCAD threat for a bullish shift above 1.2944 and the subsequent break above here set an intermediate-term bull trend, which is currently re-energizing.
- USDJPY has seen a significant downside correction in late May, but whilst holding above 108.62, we still see the intermediate-term bull trend intact, and look for a bullish resumption into late May and on into June.
USDCAD Bull bias
A strong advance as we had expected for Friday through 1.2921/25 peaks and 1.2975, building on the Tuesday- Thursday solid bounce from above 1.2725 support (off of 1.2738), leaving risk for a further advance into the US and UK Holidays on Monday.
The early May break above 1.2944 sets an intermediate-term bull trend.
For Today:
- We see an upside for 1.2993 and 1.2998/1.3000; above opens risk up to 1.3055, maybe 1.3076.
- But below 1.2911 aims for 1.2821 and 1.2803 targets.
Intermediate-term Outlook – Upside Risks: We see an upside risk for 1.3125.
- Higher targets would be 1.3347.
- What Changes This? Below 1.2536 shifts the outlook straight to a bear trend.
Resistance and Support:
| 1.2998/3000** | 1.3055* | 1.3076 | 1.3100 | 1.3125*** |
| 1.2911 | 1.2821 | 1.2803 | 1.2738/25** | 1.2714 |
4 Hour USDCAD Chart
USDJPY Downside threats eased, rebound bias
A rebound Friday from above key 108.62 support (from 108.93), easing negative pressures from the Wednesday-Thursday plunge (down through 109.54, 109.39 and 109.12 supports and the up trend line from late March), setting the threat for a further rebound into the US and UK Holidays on Monday.
The latter April push above 107.90 set an intermediate-term bull trend, BUT risk is now fading for a push below 108.62 for an intermediate-term shift straight to bearish.
For Today:
- Whilst above 108.93 we see an upside bias for 109.35 and 109.76, maybe towards 110.03.
- But below 108.93 quickly targets 108.73 and the key 108.62 level, then for 108.52 and even 108.10.
Intermediate-term Outlook – Upside Risks: We see an upside risk for 111.48.
- Higher targets would be 113.75 and 114.73 maybe 115.50/63.
- What Changes This? Below 108.62 shifts the intermediate-term outlook straight from bullish to bearish.
Resistance and Support:
| 109.35 | 109.76* | 110.33* | 111.08* | 111.40/48*** |
| 108.93 | 108.73* | 108.62*** | 108.52** | 108.10 |
Hour USDJPY Chart
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