Despite the volatile nature of FX markets through the late August equity market sell offs (and rebounds), the US currency has remained firm against the Australian, New Zealand and Canadian Dollars.
AUDUSD
- A rebound from mid-week through some modest resistance and from ahead of the recently set cycle low at .7038 to leave a topside correction bias for Monday.
- However, the aggressive sell off early last week has re-energized bear pressures into early September.
Short/ Intermediate-term Outlook – Downside Risks:
- Whilst below .7499 we see a negative tone resurfacing with the bearish threat to .7038.
- Break sees psychological .7000 and then .6857.
Daily AUDUSD Chart
NZDUSD
- A modest bounce effort late last week has eased the immediate bearish risks for a consolidation tone into Monday (with a positive bias).
- However, the setback below the .6426 secondary low, alongside the aggressive Monday plunge to a new cycle and multi-year low through a long term support at .6404 leaves bias for a push lower into late August/ early September (although we are not quite confident of the low at .6195 with differing data sources indicating different lows).
Short/ Intermediate-term Outlook – Downside Risks:
- We see a negative tone with the bearish threat to longer term targets at .6196/54.
- Overshoot threat is lower to maybe .6000.
Daily NZDUSD Chart
