- Early March has seen a gradual resumption of a “risk on” scenario across global capital markets, with the negative threats from a potential global trade war and from a possibly more hawkish Fed easing.
- This has seen the US Dollar generally weaken against the Major global currencies (but rally against the safe haven of the Japanese Yen).
- In particular, the commodity currencies have started to perform better and for the NZDUSD currency rate the positive price action sustains a bullish intermediate-term trend whilst above .7175.
- For AUDUSD, the bias is now to reject an intermediate-term bearish theme, above .7893 (only to shift bullish above .7989).
NZDUSD
Erratic tone, but upside bias resumes
A sideways consolidation Friday above .7230 support, to start to reject Thursday’s and resume upside pressures from Tuesday’s strong rally through resistances at .7279 and .7296, to shift risks higher for Monday.
The mid-February surge through .7420 produced a shift to an intermediate-term bull theme, only below .7175 would signal a Double Top and shift directly to a bear trend.
For Today:
- We see an upside bias for .7311; break here aims for .7345, maybe .7365.
- But below .7230 opens risk down to .7204, possibly towards .7183.
Intermediate-term Outlook – Upside Risks:
- Whilst above .7175, we see a positive tone with the bullish threat up to .7558 and .7744.
What Changes This? But below .7175 signals a direct shift to bearish.
Resistance and Support:
| .7311* | .7345** | .7365* | .7386** | .7411* |
| .7230* | .7204** | .7183* | .7175*** | .7140/38 |
4 Hour Chart
AUDUSD
Risks shift to the upside
A Friday rally from above the .7769 level to overcome our .7842/46 resistance area, to reject the Thursday setback and resume Tuesday’s strong recovery, flipping the bias higher Monday.
The early March break below .7756 produced a bearish intermediate-term shift, BUT risk sis shifting for neutral theme again above .7893.
For Today:
- We see an upside bias for .7854; break here aims for key .7893, maybe .7902.
- But below .7819 opens risk down to .7769.
Intermediate-term Outlook – Downside Risks: We see a downside risk for .7635.
- Lower targets would be .7500 and .7368/31
- What Changes This? Above .7893 shifts the outlook back to neutral; above .7989 is needed for a bull theme.
Resistance and Support:
| .7854 | .7893** | .7902* | .7951 | .7989*** |
| .7819 | .7769 | .7753* | .7710** | .7677 |
4 Hour Chart
