- A resumption of a more positive US Dollar tone through late November against many G10 currencies, with the passage of US tax reform legislation.
- The NZDUSD forex rate has seen bearish pressures start to resume in latter November and is pointing lower into December.
- For the AUDUSD FX rate, the correction theme seen in November is fading with risks for the bearish tone (seen since September) resuming into year-end.
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NZDUSD Downside bias despite bounce effort
A rebound attempt Friday, but contained and setting back from below .6945 resistance, sustaining a negative tone from Thursday’s push down through support at .6849 and failure back from below key resistance at .6980 (from .6945), leaving the bias lower for Monday.
The October break of .7128 set an intermediate-term bearish outlook, with risk now easing for a challenge up to .6980, only through which would see the intermediate-term outlook shift back to neutral.
For Today:
- We see a downside bias for .6846; below here targets 6818/15, maybe .6788.
- But above .6912 aims for .6945
Intermediate-term Outlook – Downside Risks:
- We see a negative tone with the bearish threat to .6676/64.
- Below here targets .6541 and .6343.
- What Changes This? Above .6980 signals a neutral tone, only shifting positive above .7211.
Resistance and Support:
| .6912 | .6945* | .6980*** | .7003/04** | .7056* |
| .6846 | .6818/15* | .6778** | .6755 | .6700 |
4 Hour NZDUSD Chart
AUDUSD Bear theme intact
An extremely erratic tone Friday, spiking higher, but then an intraday setback from below the .7645 barrier (from .7639), to retain negative forces from last Wednesday’s spike down to .7549 through .7585/81 supports, keeping the bias back lower Monday.
Late November erosion has eased risk for a challenge up to .7730, only through which would see the intermediate-term outlook shift from bearish back to neutral.
For Today:
- We see a downside for .7575 and then towards .7549/48, possibly .7533/32
- But above .7639/45 aims towards .7666
Intermediate-term Outlook – Downside Risks:
- We see a negative tone with the bearish threat to .7532 and .7331.
- Below here targets the .7155/41 area.
What Changes This? Above .7730 signals a neutral tone, only shifting positive above .7986.
Resistance and Support:
| .7620 | .7639/45** | .7666 | .7700* | .7730*** |
| .7575 | .7549/48* | .7533/32** | .7516 | .7495 |
4 Hour AUDUSD Chart