NZDUSD and AUDUSD Bear Risks

Chris Lee

Author: Chris Lee

Published:
Updated:

Further USD strength in early October has particularly impacted NZDUSD and AUDUSD with both currency pairs now within technical range environments, but both displaying risk for more bearish shifts.

For NZDUSD, below .7084 is requires to signal a more negative tone. For AUDUSD, the risk is lower for .7403, through which would see a bear shift.

NZDUSD

An erratic, neutral “outside” pattern Friday, but the probe below support at .7135 and setback from .7200 resistance maintains negative pressures from the Tuesday breakdown below .7200 (reinforcing the Head and Shoulders pattern that developed from August), to keep the bias lower for Monday.

The push below .7200 shifted the intermediate-term trend from bullish to neutral; growing threat is lower to challenge .7084, through which would see a shift in the intermediate-term outlook to bearish.

For Monday:

  • We see a downside bias for .7110/06; break here aims for key .7084, then .7058.
  • But above .7200 opens risk up to .7261.

Short/ Intermediate-term Range Parameters: We see the range defined by .7084 and .7485.

Range Breakout Challenge

  • Upside: Above .7485 aims higher for .7516/64 and .7744.
  • Downside: Below .7084 sees risk lower for .6948 and .6676.

4 Hour NZDUSD Chart

NZDUSD Chart

AUDUSD

An erratic session Friday, a neutral “outside” day, but with the prevailing negative theme intact, from the Thursday push down through support at .7586 and the Tuesday failure back from just above resistance at .7689 (back from .7691), to keep the risk lower Monday.

For Monday:

  • We see a downside bias for .7549; break here aims for .7525, then .7500.
  • But above .7624 aims for .7645 and opens risk up to .7689/91.

The early September plunge below the .7489/86/84 support area produced a shift in the intermediate-term view from bullish to neutral.

Short/ Intermediate-term Range Parameters: We see the range defined by .7403 and .7760.

Range Breakout Challenge

  • Upside: Above .7760 aims higher for .7835/50/78, .8000 and .8164/66.
  • Downside: Below .7403 sees risk lower for .7284 and .7141.

4 Hour AUDUSD Chart

AUDUSD Chart