Both the New Zealand and Australian dollars have both posted aggressively negative technical analysis signals against the US Dollar through the middle of November.
The NZDUSD plunge below support at .7030 has confirmed an intermediate-term Head and Shoulders pattern that goes back to summer 2016. This leaves the FX forecast for NZDUSD significantly lower into the end of November and likely through to the end of this year.
For AUDUSD, an aggressive push below the .7438 level has signalled a multiple peak and multi-month topping pattern and leaves the tone extremely bearish for AUDUSD into the second half of Q4 2016.
NZDUSD
A break Thursday-Friday down through the multi-month “neckline” of the Head and Shoulders top from July, for an intermediate-term bearish shift, confirmed below .7030.
Furthermore, the probe below .7000 this also leaves a downside bias into Monday.
For Monday:
- We see a downside bias through .6996, closer to .6948.
- But above .7061 targets.7111 and maybe aims for .7144/50.
Short/ Intermediate-term Outlook – Downside Risks:
- We see a negative tone with the bearish threat to .6948.
- Below here targets 6800 and .6676/64.
What Changes This? Above .7403 signals a neutral tone, only shifting positive above .7485.
Daily NZDUSD Chart
AUDUSD
Another push lower Friday below .7400, .7371 and to probe .7334 supports, to reinforce the Thursday break below critical support at .7438, to maintain downside pressures into Monday.
Furthermore, the break of .7438 completed a multiple peak topping pattern, which produced an intermediate-term bearish shift.
For Monday:
- We see a downside bias for .7300 then key .7284 and maybe .7218/02
- But above .7403 aims for .7472 and .7497.
Short/ Intermediate-term Outlook – Downside Risks:
- We see a negative tone with the bearish threat to .7284 and .7141.
- Below here targets .7000, .6971 and .6825.
What Changes This? Above .7630 signals a neutral tone, only shifting positive above .7778.
Daily AUDUSD Chart
