- In our last article here on 16th July relating to GBPUSD and EURUSD we emphasised a strong US$ and bear threat for GB Pound and Euro (against the US Dollar).
- GBPUSD has hot a new cycle low at 1.2956 since our last report here and recent losses into early August point to a sustained the intermediate-term bearish trend into this month.
- EURUSD is still in range environment (we see as 1.1851 to 1.1507), but with growing risks for a bearish breakout and intermediate-term bear trend below 1.1507.
GBPUSD Bear theme resuming
Another probe lower Friday below the 1.3000/1.2995 support area, reinforcing Thursday’s selloff pre- and post- Bank of England, after the failure down from 1.3173, PLUS from the mid-July push to a new cycle low (at 1.2956), keeping risks lower Monday.
The early May plunge through 1.3710 set an intermediate-term bear trend.
For Today:
- We see a downside bias for 1.2974; break here aims for the cycle low at 1.2956 and 1.2911, maybe 1.2877.
- But above 1.3065 opens risk up to 1.3126, maybe towards 1.3173.
Intermediate-term Outlook – Downside Risks: We see a downside risk for 1.2773,1.2587, 1.2363, maybe towards 1.2107.
- What Changes This? Above 1.3473 shifts the intermediate-term outlook from bearish straight to bullish.
Resistance and Support:
| 1.3065 | 1.3126* | 1.3173* | 1.3213** | 1.3241 |
| 1.2974 | 1.2956** | 1.2911 | 1.2877 | 1.2833 |
4 Hour GBPUSD Chart
EURUSD Downside risks intact
A prod lower Friday below 1.1574 and 1.1560 to reinforce Thursday’s selloff through the Triangle support line (and also 1.1646 and 1.1619 chart supports), PLUS the late July rebound failure (from just below the notable 1.1751/60 resistance area), leaving risks for a further push lower Monday.
We see an intermediate-term range, 1.1851 to 1.1507.
For Today:
- We see a downside bias for 1.1560; break here aims towards 1.1526, maybe critical 1.1509/07.
- But above 1.1656 targets 1.1717 and maybe aims for 1.1746/51/60.
Intermediate-term Range Breakout Parameters: Range seen as 1.1851 to 1.1507.
- Upside Risks: Above 1.1851 sets a bull trend to aim for 1.2210, 1.2414/21 and 1.2529.
- Downside Risks: Below 1.1507 sees a bear trend to target 1.1312 and 1.1134.
Resistance and Support:
| 1.1656 | 1.1717 | 1.1746/51/60** | 1.1791** | 1.1851*** |
| 1.1526* | 1.1509/07*** | 1.1483 | 1.1458 | 1.1423 |
4 Hour EURUSD Chart
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