- On 23rd April we last looked at the GBPUSD and EURUSD FX rates here and highlighted bear risks for GBPUSD and a positive range theme for EURUSD.
- Since then, the GBPUSD currency pair has produced an intermediate-term shift from a bull theme to a bear trend below 1.2967, driven by both a stronger US Dollar in a “risk off” environment, alongside concerns of lack of Brexit progress between the Conservative and Labour parties.
- The EURUSD Forex rate shifted to an intermediate-term bear trend through multiyear support at 1.1175, but a rebound in May during the current “risk off” phase has seen an upside threat emerge.
GBPUSD bias still lower
A rebound failure Friday from below our 1.3081 resistance after Thursday’s push through 1.2986 and 1.2985 supports, reinforcing Tuesday’s notable setback from just below our 1.3135 resistance (from 1.3131), to keep risks lower for Monday.
The latter April probe below 1.2947 signalled an intermediate-term Double Top pattern and set an intermediate-term bear trend, BUT risk is now for a break above 1.3196 for an intermediate-term bull shift.
For Today:
- We see a downside bias for 1.2966; break here aims for 1.2937, maybe 1.2864.
- But above 1.3081 aims for 1.3131/35 and maybe opens risk up towards 1.3177.
Intermediate-term Outlook – Downside Risks: We see a downside risk for 1.2771.
- Lower targets would be 1.2437, 1.2366 and 1.2109
- What Changes This? Above 1.3196 is needed to shift straight to a bull theme.
Resistance and Support:
| 1.3081 | 1.3131/35* | 1.3177 | 1.3196*** | 1.3269** |
| 1.2966 | 1.2937* | 1.2864** | 1.2830/25 | 1.2771*** |
4 Hour GBPUSD Chart
EURUSD risks stay higher
A prod higher and resilient consolidation tone Friday after Thursday’s firm advance above 1.1218/19 and 1.1239 resistances, further rejecting negative forces from the early May setback from 1.1265, to keep risks higher for Monday.
The latter April plunge through 1.1175 set an intermediate-term bear trend.
For Today:
- We see an upside bias for 1.1254 and 1.1265; break here aims towards 1.1302/04.
- But below 1.1201 opens risk down to 1.1172/65, maybe 1.1134.
Intermediate-term Outlook – Downside Risks: We see a downside risk for 1.1109.
- Lower targets would be 1.1000 and 1.0839.
- What Changes This? Above 1.1324 shifts the intermediate-term outlook straight to a bull theme.
Resistance and Support:
| 1.1254 | 1.1265* | 1.1302/04 | 1.1324*** | 1.1332/41 |
| 1.1201 | 1.1172/65 | 1.1134* | 1.1109** | 1.1081 |
4 Hour EURUSD Chart
