- The US Dollar has broadly weakened since mid-November, with the US$ particularly surrendering support versus the Euro and against the GB Pound.
- EURUSD has neutralised the bear trend with a push above 1.1880, but with the bias got a push higher through late November.
- For GBPUSD, although the market remains within a broader non-trend environment, recent pushes above resistances leaves the bias to the upside into month-end and potentially into early December.
EURUSD Intermediate-term shift to neutral; upside risks
We have stated in recent reports that “November risk is still for a challenge to 1.1880, above which would see an intermediate-term shift from bearish to neutral” and the surge through here Friday sets a broader range theme for late November and into December.
Furthermore, the asymmetrical threat within the intermediate-term range (1.2089-1.1553) is for an upside challenge.
The push through 1.1880 and 1.1936 leaves risks higher for Monday.
For Today:
- We see an upside bias through 1.1945; above opens risk to 1.2005, then 1.2034.
- But below 1.1895 aims at 1.1835.
Intermediate-term Range Parameters: We see the range defined by 1.2089 and 1.1553.
Range Breakout Challenge
- Upside: Above 1.2089 aims higher for 1.2173, 1.2272 and 1.2600.
- Downside: Below 1.1553 sees risk lower for 1.1311 and 1.1107.
Resistance and Support:
| 1.1945 | 1.2005** | 1.2034* | 1.2089*** | 1.2135 |
| 1.1695 | 1.1835* | 1.1760 | 1.1712** | 1.1660** |
4 Hour EURUSD Chart
GBPUSD Positive tone
Another rally Friday through 1.3338 resistance, reinforcing Wednesday’s strong advance through the resistance area at 1.3276/80 area and upside pressures from the mid-November bounce, keeping the bias higher Monday.
For Today:
- We see an upside bias through 1.3366; above targets 1.3402, maybe 1.3464.
- But below 1.3276 opens risk up to 1.3231.
Intermediate-term Range Parameters: We see the range defined by 1.2903 and 1.3658.
Range Breakout Challenge
- Upside: Above 1.3658 aims higher for 1.3841 and 1.4000.
- Downside: Below 1.2903 sees risk lower for 1.2773 and 1.2587.
Resistance and Support:
| 1.3366 | 1.3402 | 1.3464 | 1.3515 | 1.3596** |
| 1.3276 | 1.3231* | 1.3181 | 1.3113 | 1.3060* |
4 Hour GBPUSD Chart
