- Both the Euro and the GB Pound have retained their intermediate term bullish outlook into May, despite erratic consolidation over the past week.
- For EURUSD, the push in April through 1.0906 signalled a more bullish theme on an intermediate time viewpoint and sets the risk for still higher price action into the second half of May and potentially beyond.
- For GBPUSD, the multi-month basing structure was completed on the April push above 1.2775, leaving threat for higher price action towards 1.3121 into May.
EURUSD – Rebound bias
A rebound Friday, rejecting the Thursday spike below the 1.0850 support level with a rebound ahead of the top of the bull gap at 1.0818, leaving this higher for Monday
Furthermore, the April push above 1.0906 signalled an intermediate-term bullish shift.
For Today:
l We see an upside bias for 1.0933/37; break here aims for the cycle high 1.1023.
l But below 1.0837 opens risk down to the bull gap top at 1.0818, with interim support at 1.0778, ahead of the gap bottom at 1.0738.
Intermediate-term Outlook – Upside Risks:
l We see a positive tone with the bullish threat to 1.1023.
l Above here targets 1.1300
What Changes This? Below 1.0568 signals a neutral tone, only shifting negative below 1.0493.
4 Hour EURUSD Chart
GBPUSD – Bullish threat
A consolidation Friday after the Thursday push below support at 1.2878, holding above better foundations at 1.2829 and 1.2803 and whilst above the higher of these two levels we still see a rebound risk into Monday.
Furthermore, the mid-April push above 1.2775 produced a multi-month Triple/ Quadruple Bottom pattern, which signalled an intermediate-term bullish shift.
For Today:
l We see an upside bias for 1.2950, potentially to a map 1.2989 and 1.3000.
l But below 1.2829 opens risk down towards 1.2803, which we would look to try to hold.
Intermediate-term Outlook – Upside Risks:
l We see a positive tone with the bullish threat to 1.3000.
l Above here targets 1.3121 and 1.3455/3534 area.
What Changes This? Below 1.2363 signals a neutral tone, only shifting negative below 1.2107.
Daily GBPUSD Chart
