- Both EURUSD and GBPUSD remain within intermediate-term bear trends, as highlighted in our last article.
- However, late May EURUSD rebound effort has setup and upside correction tone, but the intermediate-term bear trend is only neutralised above 1.1996.
- For GPUSD, we still see the intermediate-term bear trend, but the immediate bias is for an early June rebound, but the intermediate-term trend only shift back to neutral through 1.3618.
EURUSD Still a recovery bias
A dip on Friday, but whilst above 1.1593 we see a recovery bias from Thursday’s probe higher to test the down trend line from mid-April, leaving an upside effort into Monday.
The latter April plunge through 1.2153 set an intermediate-term bear trend.
For Today:
- We see an upside bias for 1.1724; break here quickly aims for 1.1750 and 1.1789, maybe for 1.1830.
- But below 1.1593 opens risk down to 1.1551, maybe for the 1.1509/00 area.
Intermediate-term Outlook – Downside Risks: Whilst below 1.1996 we see a downside risk for 1.1553.
- Lower targets would be 1.1312 and 1.1134.
- What Changes This? Above 1.1996 shifts the outlook back to neutral; above 1.2140 is needed for a bull theme.
Resistance and Support:
| 1.1724 | 1.1750** | 1.1789 | 1.1830** | 1.1854 |
| 1.1616 | 1.1593* | 1.1551 | 1.1509/00* | 1.1479* |
4 Hour EURUSD Chart
GBPUSD Still a rebound bias
A dip and rebound Friday for a bullish outside pattern through 1.3348 resistance and then above 1.3362 this morning, to build on Thursday’s probe higher above initial resistance at 1.3325, keeping risks higher into Monday.
The early May plunge through 1.3710 set an intermediate-term bear trend.
For Today:
- We see an upside bias for 1.3378; break here aims for 1.3466, possibly towards 1.3492/3500.
- But below 1.3294 targets 1.3253 and opens risk down to the 1.3203 cycle low.
Intermediate-term Outlook – Downside Risks: We see a downside risk for 1.3040/27 and 1.3000.
- Lower targets would be 1.2773 and 1.2587.
- What Changes This? Above 1.3618 shifts the intermediate-term outlook from bearish back to neutral, but only to bullish above 1.3998.
Resistance and Support:
| 1.3378 | 1.3466 | 1.3492/3500** | 1.3569/72** | 1.3618*** |
| 1.3294 | 1.3253 | 1.3203* | 1.3186 | 1.3135/31 |
4 Hour GBPUSD Chart
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