Aggressive losses for both the Australian and New Zealand Dollars in November and December 2016 created intermediate-term topping structures, which signalled bear trends into early 2017.
However, aggressive recovery activity in early January and particularly in the second week of the year have significantly damaged the topping patterns and leaves strong risk for a shift in the intermediate term outlook for both AUDUSD and NZDUSD from bearish to neutral.
AUDUSD
A dip and a rebound on Friday, reinforcing the Thursday aggressive advance through resistances at .7427/31, .7472 and psychological .7500, to leave risk for a push above .7525, which would shift the intermediate-term outlook from bearish to neutral.
Furthermore, this leaves risk of further gains into Monday.
For Today:
- We see an upside bias for .7518 and key .7525; break here aims for .7561, maybe .7581.
- But below .7445 opens risk down to .7425, maybe .7347.
Short/ Intermediate-term Outlook – Downside Risks:
- We see a negative tone with the bearish threat to .7141.
- Below here targets .7000, .6971 and .6825.
What Changes This? Above .7525 signals a neutral tone, only shifting positive above .7778.
Daily AUDUSD Chart
NZDUSD
A dip and bounce on Friday from head of support at .7039, maintaining outside pressures from the extremely strong rally Thursday (through 7080 and .7119), leaving risk to the upside into Monday.
Furthermore, the growing threat is for a push-up through .7239, which Would shift the intermediate term outlook from bearish to neutral.
For Today:
- We see an upside bias for .7145; break here aims for .7174/76, maybe .7200 and critical .7239.
- But below .7067 opens risk down to .7039.
Short/ Intermediate-term Outlook – Downside Risks:
- We see a negative tone with the bearish threat to .6800.
- Below here targets .6676/64, .6572/41 and maybe as deep as .6343.
What Changes This? Above .7239 signals a neutral tone, only shifting positive above .7403.
Daily NZDUSD Chart
