Gold H4 – Do the bears stand a chance

On the H4 time, the Gold market made a short uptrend that ended when a last higher top was formed on 30th May at 1863.81.

After the higher top, the price broke through the 15 and 34 Simple Moving Averages, and the Momentum Oscillator broke through the 100 baseline into the bearish terrain.

A possible critical support level formed when a lower bottom was recorded on 31st May at 1845.84. The bulls then moved the market higher, but a lower top formed later in the same day at 1856.94, near a resistance level.

If Gold manages to break through the critical support level at 1845.84, three possible price targets can be projected from there. Attaching the Fibonacci tool to the lower bottom at 1845.84 and dragging it to the resistance level at 1856.94, the following targets can be calculated. The first target can be estimated at 1838.98 (161.8%). The second price target may be considered at 1827.88 (261.8%), and the third and final target may be expected at 1809.92 (423.6%).

Do the bears stand a chance? We will have to wait and see what the market structure reveals.

If the resistance level at 1856.94 is broken, the above scenario is null and void.

If the downward bias remains intact and supply overcomes demand, the outlook for Gold on the H4 time frame will remain bearish.

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Nigel Frith

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