EUR/USD overbought? Pair uncertain after 1.1916 hit

The single European currency has done well for itself in recent weeks and even managed to hit some new highs for the year.

At one stage recently, it was spotted at 1.1916 in its pair against the greenback, though it has since retraced its steps a little.

In some ways, it continues to ride high off the back of the news from heads of government across the European bloc several weeks ago that a stimulus package had been agreed.

In that sense, the bloc was somewhat ahead of the curve.

Lawmakers in the US, for example, continue to be unable to strike a deal to create a package of support for those hit hard by the coronavirus pandemic.

Some strategists have suggested that traders who are losing out in this pair are beginning to have their stop losses triggered – a development that, if true, could suggest that those going long on the pair could be in for a positive journey.

Figures suggest that most traders now in the market in this pair are increasingly opting for going long.

However, the euro’s technical outlook is mixed.

There is some suggestion that the currency may be approaching an overbought position.

The Relative Strength Index for the euro’s pair with the dollar is currently higher than 70.

This marks the third time that this has happened this year.

There are also lots of events on the economic calendar for euro traders to think about.

On Tuesday of next week, there will be a survey release from Germany, which is the bloc’s largest economy.

This survey, from ZEW, will indicate economic sentiment in the country for August.

Analysts predict that this will rise from 59.3 to 62.4.

At the same time, there will be a similar release covering the whole of the bloc.

This is due to show a slight uptick from 59.6 to 59.9.

On Wednesday morning, meanwhile, there will be a consumer price index release from Italy.

This release, which will cover July, is likely to show no change from its previous position of -0.3%.

If this materialises, traders are likely to be relieved that the Italian economy – which took a battering due to Italy’s particularly negative experience of the pandemic – is at least seeing some stability.

Next up on Wednesday will be an industrial production measure for the whole of the bloc in June.

This will be out at 9am GMT and is set to show a change from 12.4% to 14.3% on a month-on-month basis.

As Thursday dawns, meanwhile, French unemployment figures will be the next to be released.

These will cover Q2 2020 and are expected to come out at 5:30am GMT.

As is the case with the Italian consumer price figures, these are due to remain fairly firm.

Overall, they are expected to remain at 7.8% – another small sign, perhaps, that the European economy is performing well.

About the author: Justin Freeman

Justin is an active trader with more than 20-years’ industry experience of working for big banks and hedge funds. He has an inside knowledge of how the financial markets work, thanks to roles including trader on a $750m Event-Arbitrage desk and CRO and COO of hedge funds running a variety of strategies. From stat-arb and trend-following CTA to fixed-income relative value. Firm’s he has worked at include big banks like Citi, and prominent hedge funds including D. E. Shaw and Millennium Capital Management.

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