EUR/USD hits $1.18 following German sentiment survey

Despite seeing some positive gains on Monday following the posting of positive news regarding the details of a stimulus package and US labour market data, the USD has suffered a minor blow against the EUR as the economic situation stabilises in Europe.

Having suffered a series of historic skids since hitting all-time highs in March, the last six months have been pretty rough overall for the USD.

This proved to be the case once again as survey data on consumer trends in Germany got released today.

Although the COVID-19 pandemic has not hit Germany quite as bad as some of its European counterparts, German consumers nevertheless have seemed quite skittish in recent months with consumer spending significantly down.

According to data released today, however, it seems as though we might be beginning to see a reversal, or at least a minor recovery, of this trend if some of these latest figures are anything to go by.

With all this said, the EUR/USD hit a weekly high of $1.18, which is a notable increase from just a few weeks ago as it struggled to hit $1.1781.

Interestingly, while the USD is very much the weaker currency in the EUR/USD pair, the USD/YEN tells a completely different story.

Despite hitting a forex trading floor a few weeks ago, the USD has held its own against the yen amid US-China tensions and a stalemate between Congress and President Donald Trump’s administration regarding the much-awaited stimulus package.

This saw the USD hitting a three-week high against the yen as US 10-year Treasury bond yields stretched to a four-week-high peak.

This is despite tensions in the Asia-Pacific region rising with what looks to be the onset of another tit-for-tat sanctions war between the US and China.

Although industry analysts are indicating that the market hasn’t reacted too strongly to growing tensions between the US and China, the long-term implications of this might be a different story entirely.

This latest news is very much indicative of how European states have been managing the economic impact of the COVID-19 pandemic in comparison to the US, with the EU member states already beginning to implement the terms of the stimulus package negotiated last month.

At the domestic spending level, it seems as though consumer confidence is similarly beginning to slowly but surely build its way back up again.

In light of all this, it seems as though the EUR/USD might be an important market indicator to keep track of in the coming months as both sides of the Atlantic eye up COVID-19 recovery plans.

Despite all this, it is still far too early to tell what the long-term health of the EUR/USD might be given all the uncertainty, particularly the possibility of a second wave breaking out.

About the author: Justin Freeman

Justin is an active trader with more than 20-years’ industry experience of working for big banks and hedge funds. He has an inside knowledge of how the financial markets work, thanks to roles including trader on a $750m Event-Arbitrage desk and CRO and COO of hedge funds running a variety of strategies. From stat-arb and trend-following CTA to fixed-income relative value. Firm’s he has worked at include big banks like Citi, and prominent hedge funds including D. E. Shaw and Millennium Capital Management.

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