A mixed tone for the US currency since the FOMC meeting into the end of October. Although the US Dollar is attempting to re-strengthen against many major currencies (here we look at EURUSD), a strong rally for GBPUUSD leaves upside pressures for early November. Moreover, NZDUSD has maintained an underlying bull theme throughout October to likely carry into November.
EURUSD
Another bullish recovery failure, again back from just ahead of our 1.1096/1.1100 resistance area, to reinforce the latter October plunge below 1.1015, to leave the risk still lower Monday.
The aggressive bear break post-ECB in latter October, to plunge below 1.1085 saw a shift to a more bearish outlook for early November.
For Today:
- We see a downside bias to 1.0963, 1.0896 and maybe 1.0846; break opens up 1.0807.
- But above 1.1072 opens risk up to 1.1096/1100, maybe 1.1140/65.
Short/ Intermediate-term Outlook – Downside Risks:
- We see a more negative tone with the bearish threat to 1.0846/07.
- Below here targets 1.0658/07, 1.0520 and 1.0459.
What Changes This? Above 1.1395 signals a neutral tone, only shifting positive above 1.1495.
Daily EURUSD Chart
GBPUSD
An aggressively strong rally Friday, from a new setback low Thursday, to negate immediate downside risks, to aim higher for Monday and see risk of a shift to a broader range theme.
Furthermore, although the early October push below 1.5162 set a bearish tone, the risk is now up through 1.5508/09 for a neutral range theme, even above 1.5659 for a bull bias.
For Today:
- We see an upside bias for 1.5508/09; break here aims for 1.5528/42/68.
- But below 1.5409 opens risk down to 1.5332.
Short/ Intermediate-term Outlook – Downside Risks:
- Whilst below 1.5509, we see a negative tone with the bearish threat to 1.5105 and 1.5087.
- Below here targets 1.5000 and 1.4856.
What Changes This? Above 1.5509 signals a neutral tone, only shifting positive above 1.5659.
Daily GBPUSD Chart
NZDUSD
A firm bounce Friday (after a setback last week from minor resistance at .6813, through .6694 and .6646 support) to now see a more positive tone for Monday.
Furthermore, whilst holding above .6615, we again see a bull tone into early November (a shift in the short/ intermediate-term outlook back to neutral, is only seen through .6615).
For Today:
- We see an upside bias for 6813; break here aims for 6865, maybe closer to the .6897 cycle peak.
- But below.6719 opens risk down to .6644, maybe to .6620/15.
Short/ Intermediate-term Outlook – Upside Risks:
- We see a bullish threat to .6924/30.
- Above here targets .7000/09/12 and .7232.
What Changes This? Below .6615 signals a neutral tone, only shifting negative below .6232.
Daily NZDUSD Chart
