Both EURUSD and GBPUSD have sustained their bullish technical outlooks since political events triggered significant upside activity in April.
For EURUSD, the bull gap (1.0818-1.0738) after the first round of the French Presidential election, signalled a bully shift above 1.0906, whilst resilient consolidation since then maintains an upside threat.
For GBPUSD, the strong rally’s after the calling of a UK election for Tuesday 18th April produced a break above a key peak at 1.2775, confirming a multi-month basing structure, pointing higher into May.
EURUSD – Bullish threat intact, despite setback
Despite remaining hesitant at the 1.0950 resistance peak, repeated rebound from the strong 1.0850 support maintains risk to the upside for Tuesday.
This activity leaves risk still higher from the aggressive bull gap in the wake of the French Presidential election results (gap 1.0818-1.0738), above the March peak at 1.0906, keeping an upside bias for Friday.
Furthermore, the push above 1.0906 also signalled an intermediate-term bullish shift.
For Today:
l We see an upside bias to aim at 1.0950 and 1.1000; break here aims for 1.1045.
l But below 1.0850 opens risk down to 1.0813, maybe 1.0778.
Intermediate-term Outlook – Upside Risks:
l We see a positive tone with the bullish threat to 1.1000.
l Above here targets 1.1300
What Changes This? Below 1.0568 signals a neutral tone, only shifting negative below 1.0493.
4 Hour Chart
GBPUSD – Bullish threat
Another push higher on Monday, reinforcing the strong end to April above the mid-April spike high at 1.2906, sustaining upside pressures from the Tuesday 18th April aggressive surge above key resistance at 1.2775, aiming higher for Tuesday.
Furthermore, the push above 1.2775 produced a multi-month Triple/ Quadruple Bottom pattern, which signalled an intermediate-term bullish shift.
For Today:
l We see an upside bias for 1.2966; break here aims towards 1.3000 and maybe 1.3058.
l But below 1.2863 opens risk down towards 1.2803, which we would look to try to hold.
Intermediate-term Outlook – Upside Risks:
l We see a positive tone with the bullish threat to 1.3000.
l Above here targets 1.3121 and 1.3455/3534 area.
What Changes This? Below 1.2363 signals a neutral tone, only shifting negative below 1.2107.
4 Hour GBPUSD Chart
