Both the Australian and New Zealand Dollars have seen modest corrective setbacks in early August versus the US Dollar.
However, underlying strength from late July retains a bullish intermediate-term (and also short-term) outlook for AUDUSD, whilst NZDUSD has a less forceful, but still positive outlook into mid-August.
AUDUSD
Another new recovery high Friday through .7638 and .7659 resistance, and despite a setback, support at .7566 has held (from .7594), to leave an upside bias Monday.
This activity has once again reinforced the intermediate-term bullish outlook, having rejected a shift back to neutral in late July (only seen below .7403).
For Monday:
- We see an upside bias for .7664; break here aims for the .7676 cycle peak and maybe .7719.
- But below .7594 targets .7566 and .7541.
Short/ Intermediate-term Outlook – Upside Risks: The mid-July new recovery high above .7648 signalled an intermediate-term bullish shift .
- We see a positive tone with the bullish threat to .7676 and .7719.
- Above here targets .7835/49/78 and .8000.
What Changes This? Below .7403 signals a neutral tone, only shifting negative below .7284.
Daily AUDUSD Chart
NZDUSD
A rebound and setback Friday to hint at a small Head and Shoulders Top formation, but whilst above .7107 support we see bias still for a rebound into Monday. Down through .7107 see a more negative correction shift.
Although Mid-July saw a probe below the key .6960 level for a shift in the intermediate-term outlook to neutral (from bullish), August risk is still for a bullish shift again above.7324.
For Monday:
- We see an upside bias for .7219; break here aims for .7256 and .7272.
- But below .7107 opens risk down to .7058.
Short/ Intermediate-term Range Parameters: We see the broader range defined by .7324 and .6676.
Range Breakout Challenge
- Upside: Above .7324 aims higher for .7396/7413 and .7564.
- Downside: Below .6676 sees risk lower for .6541 and .6343.
Daily NZDUSD Chart
