- Both the AUDUSD and NZDUSD have extended losses into the beginning of May.
- For AUDUSD, the previous push through .7487 and more recent continuation down through .7469 retains an intermediate-term bearish theme into mid-May and beyond.
- For NZDUSD, the late April break .6867 highlighted an intermediate-term bearish shift, which we look to extend for this month.
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AUDUSD – Downside threat
A further push lower on Friday below support at .7378, as we had anticipated, and despite the intraday rebound, whilst below resistance at .7431 we see negative pressures after the extremely aggressive sell-off in early May, setting risk lower again for Monday.
Furthermore, the early April push down through .7487 produced an intermediate-term bearish shift.
For Today:
l We see a downside bias for .7364 and .7347; break here aims for .7327 and may be as deep as .7283/79.
l But above .7431 opens risk up to .7495.
Intermediate-term Outlook – Downside Risks:
l We see a negative tone with the bearish threat to .7283/79.
l Below here targets .7155/41/06 area, .7000 and .6971.
What Changes This? Above .7778 signals a bullish tone.
4 Hour Chart
NZDUSD – Negative tone
Despite a rebound effort on Friday through resistance at .6885, whilst below the more significant barriers in the .6968/69 area, we see negative pressures intact, keeping risks back lower for Monday.
Furthermore, the late April push down below .6867, produced an intermediate-term shift to bearish.
For Today:
l We see a downside bias to .6878, then 6835; break here aims for a key chart support at .6800.
l But above .6943 opens risk up to .6968/69, which we would look to try to cap.
Intermediate-term Outlook – Downside Risks:
l We see a negative tone with the bearish threat to .6800 and .6676/64.
l Below here targets .6572/41 and maybe as deep as .6343.
What Changes This? Above .7053 signals a neutral tone, only shifting positive above .7247.
4 Hour Chart
