- Both USDJPY and USDCAD are currently in short-term recovery phases within intermediate-term bearish trends.
- We see risks for these recovery phases to extend and for the intermediate-term trends to shift from bearish to neutral and maybe to bullish.
- For USDJPY above 113.39 would switch the intermediate-term outlook to neutral, whilst above 114.55 is required for a bull theme.
- With respect to USDCAD, however, just a push above 1.3226 would shift the intermediate-term outlook straight bullish.
USDJPY Upside threat intact
A Thursday-Friday rebound from just below our 111.98/96 support area (from 111.93), to prod above the 112.52 impulse resistance, to reinforce the advance last week (before and after the Fed Minutes) above the notable 112.50/54 resistances, thereby sustaining upside pressures evident since the reversal of the October down trend line, to keep the bias higher Monday.
We see an intermediate-term bear trend from the break below 112.53, BUT risk is growing for a shift back to neutral above 113.39
For Today:
- We see an upside bias for 112.65 and quickly to 112.73/83; break here opens risk up towards key 113.28/39.
- But below 111.98/96 aims at 59 and opens risk down to 111.35 and 111.09/01.
Intermediate-term Outlook – Downside Risks: We see a downside risk for 110.36 and 110.00.
- What Changes This? Above 113.39 shifts the outlook back to neutral; above 114.55 is needed for a bull theme.
Resistance and Support:
| 112.65 | 112.73/83* | 113.28/39*** | 113.82** | 114.10/15* |
| 111.98/93** | 111.59* | 111.35 | 111.09/01** | 110.71 |
4 Hour USDJPY Chart
USDCAD Upside risks
Again, another firm advance Friday to build on the rally from mid-October, through notable 1.3072/82 resistance peaks and to prod at the down trend line from June, to flip risks lower Monday.
We see an intermediate-term bearish theme, BUT see growing risks for an intermediate-term shift straight from bearish to bullish above 1.3266.
For Today:
- We see an upside bias for 1.3132; break here aims for 1.3198 and key 1.3266, maybe 1.3247.
- But below 1.3061 opens risk down to 1.3023/15.
Intermediate-term Outlook – Downside Risks: Whilst below 1.3226 we see a downside risk for 1.2725.
- Lower targets would be 1.2536, 1.2250 and 1.2062/00
- What Changes This? Above 1.3226 shifts the intermediate-term outlook straight bullish.
Resistance and Support:
| 1.3132 | 1.3198* | 1.3226*** | 1.3247 | 1.3290** |
| 1.3061 | 1.3023/15** | 1.2979 | 1.2912** | 1.2885* |
4 Hour USDCAD Chart
