- In our last article here regarding both GBPUSD and EURUSD we highlighted US$ strength and downside risks for both the Euro and GB Pound versus the US Dollar. These themes remains intact with the US currency seen as a safe haven with still developing trade war concerns.
- For EURUSD, the market remains within an erratic, range environment defined by 1.1851 and 1.1507, but we still see risks skewed towards the downside.
- GBPUSD has rejected the early July recovery effort, failing back from below key resistance at 1.3473, sustaining the intermediate-term bearish trend.
EURUSD
Bias stays lower
A spike lower Friday through 1.1648 support reinforcing the overnight selloff Wednesday through 1.1689 AND the break below the July up trend line earlier last week, and despite an intraday bounce to keep risks lower Monday.
We see an intermediate-term range, 1.1851 to 1.1507, BUT with risk now easing for a bullish shift above 1.1851.
For Today:
- We see a downside bias for 1.1611; break here quickly aims for 1.1590, maybe towards 1.1560 and even 1.1526.
- But above 1.1729 opens risk up to 1.1760 and 1.1791.
Intermediate-term Range Breakout Parameters: Range seen as 1.1851 to 1.1507.
- Upside Risks: Above 1.1851 sets a bull trend to aim for 1.2210, 1.2414/21 and 1.2529.
- Downside Risks: Below 1.1507 sees a bear trend to target 1.1312 and 1.1134.
Resistance and Support:
| 1.1729 | 1.1760 | 1.1791* | 1.1851*** | 1.1903 |
| 1.1611 | 1.1590 | 1.1560 | 1.1526* | 1.1509/07*** |
4 Hour Chart
GBPUSD
Downside risks reinforced
A plunge lower Friday through 1.3156 support into the 1.3102/3094 support area, and despite an intraday rebound from here (from 1.3101), reinforcing the midweek setback and negative forces from last Monday’s bearish outside pattern through the July support trend line, to keep risks lower for Monday.
The early May plunge through 1.3710 set an intermediate-term bear trend.
For Today:
- We see a downside bias for 1.3141; break here aims for 1.3101/3094, maybe towards 1.3049.
- But above 1.3301 opens risk up to 1.3363.
Intermediate-term Outlook – Downside Risks: We see a downside risk for 1.3040/27 and 1.3000.
- Lower targets would be 1.2773 and 1.2587.
- What Changes This? Above 1.3473 shifts the intermediate-term outlook from bearish straight to bullish.
Resistance and Support:
| 1.3301* | 1.3363* | 1.3391 | 1.3447 | 1.3473*** |
| 1.3141 | 1.3101/3094* | 1.3049/40** | 1.3027** | 1.3000** |
4 Hour Chart
