- A mixed tone for the US Dollar versus the Japanese yen and Canadian Dollar.
- USDJPY has shifted from an intermediate-term range theme to an intermediate-term bull trend with the prod above 111.08 and a subsequent high -level consolidation in early July, leaving risks for further upside into this month.
- The USDCAD intermediate-term bull trend has been correcting lower in July, after a late June small Double Top, BUT with risks growing to neutralise the bull trend, but only below 1.2945.
USDJPY
Still a rebound bias
A rally and a setback Friday, but whilst holding above the support area at 110.27/25 we still see a bull bias from the early July probe above the key 111.08 impulse resistance from May, leaving a rebound bias for Monday.
The early July prod above 111.08 shifted the intermediate-term view to bullish.
For Today:
- We see an upside bias for 111.13, then the cycle peak at 111.40, maybe 111.88
- But below 110.27/25 opens risk down to 109.95, maybe for 109.65
Intermediate-term Outlook – Upside Risks: We see an upside risk for 111.40/48.
- Higher targets would be 113.39/55 and 114.73.
- What Changes This? Below 109.35 shifts the outlook back to neutral; just below through 109.17 is needed for a bear theme.
Resistance and Support:
| 111.13 | 111.40*** | 111.88 | 112.27 | 112.79 |
| 110.27/25 | 109.95 | 109.66* | 109.35 | 109.17/14** |
4 Hour Chart
USDCAD
Downside risks
A selloff Friday to probe 1.3082 support as we had flagged, further reinforcing Wednesday’s prod below 1.3126/20 support and the early July setback from below 1.3227 resistance, sustaining downside pressures from the small Double Top pattern (through 1.3256/55), keeping risk lower for Monday.
The early May break above 1.2944 sets an intermediate-term bull trend, BUT we see growing risk for an intermediate-term shift to neutral below 1.2945.
For Today:
- We see a downside bias for 1.3076; break here aims for 1.3025 and 1.3000, maybe towards key 1.2945.
- But above 1.3117 opens risk up to 1.3176; break here maybe aims for 1.3225/27.
Intermediate-term Outlook – Upside Risks: We see an upside risk for 1.3347.
- Higher targets would be 1.3500, 1.3550 and 1.3794.
- What Changes This? Below 1.2945 shifts the outlook bullish straight to a bear trend.
Resistance and Support:
| 1.3117 | 1.3176 | 1.3225/27* | 1.3268** | 1.3351* |
| 1.3076 | 1.3025 | 1.3000* | 1.2945*** | 1.2917 |
4 Hour Chart
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