- A more positive US Dollar tone has resumed through mid-March versus the commodity/ risk currencies (CAD,AUD,NZD), driven by escalating convers regarding tariffs and potential trade wars.
- This has also seen a flight to quality, which has seen underlying US Dollar weakness against the Japanese Yen evident since late 2017 resume.
- For USDCAD, the push above the cycle highs at 1.2917 and again through 1.3001 this last week sets a still more bullish theme into the second half of March.
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USDJPY Downside risks
A Friday dip and bounce, but contained below modest resistance at 106.42, sustaining negative pressures from Wednesday’s notable setback through 106.22/11 supports, keeping the bias lower for Monday.
The mid-January selloff below 112.01 produced an intermediate-term bearish shift.
For Today:
- We see a downside bias for 105.57 and 105.43; break here aims for the 105.25 cycle low.
- But only above 106.42 targets 106.75 and opens risk up to 107.30.
Intermediate-term Outlook – Downside Risks:
- Whilst below 108.00 we see a bear theme with the downside threat to 104.93,104.06 and 101.15.
What Changes This? Above 108.00 signals a neutral tone, shifting bullish below 109.31.
Resistance and Support:
| 106.42 | 106.75* | 107.30** | 107.68** | 107.90/108.00*** |
| 105.57 | 105.43* | 105.25/16** | 105.00/104.93*** | 104.55 |
4 Hour USDJPY Chart
USDCAD Bull theme further reinforced
A Friday probe higher to another new cycle high, to build on Thursday‘s surge through the cycle peaks at 1.3001, to keep risk higher Monday.
The latter February break above 1.2728 set a bullish intermediate-term view.
For Today:
- We see an upside bias for 1.3104; break here aims for 1.3133, then maybe for 1.3168 and the 1.3200/03 area.
- But below 1.3035 opens risk down to 1.2976, maybe 1.2940.
Intermediate-term Outlook – Upside Risks:
- Whilst above 1.2612 we see a positive tone with the bullish threat to 1.3347.
What Changes This? Below 1.2612 signals a neutral tone, only shifting negative below 1.2445.
Resistance and Support:
| 1.3104 | 1.3133 | 1.3168 | 1.3200/03 | 1.3247 |
| 1.3035* | 1.2976 | 1.2940* | 1.2916/13** | 1.2871 |
4 Hour USDCAD Chart
