Despite posting modest rebound efforts at the end of last week, the US dollar has suffered significant losses within the G3 complex (being the USD, EUR, and JPY currencies) since the Wednesday 21st September Bank of Japan and FOMC meetings.
Although still very much defined by non-trend, range environments, EURUSD retains a positive bias, whilst USDJPY sees risk of further losses into late September.
EURUSD
Another probe higher Friday, after an advance on Thursday above 1.1213 and to nudge 1.1253 resistance, to keep the bias to the upside into Monday.
For Monday/ Tuesday:
- We see an upside bias for 1.1257; break here aims for 1.1285, maybe 1.1300.
- But below 1.1155 opens risk down to 1.1120.
The late July push above 1.1189 saw a shift to an intermediate-term, neutral range theme.
Short/ Intermediate-term Range Parameters: We see the range defined by 1.1428 and 1.0950.
Range Breakout Challenge
- Upside: Above 1.1428 aims higher for 1.1616 and 1.1714.
- Downside: Below 1.0950 sees risk lower for 1.0910, 1.0823/21, 1.0777/08 and maybe 1.0520.
4 Hour EURUSD Chart
USDJPY
A rebound Friday having just held above 100.05 support on Thursday (off of 100.07), and through minor resistance at 101.00 to shift the bias higher for Monday.
However, the plunge lower Wednesday (post Bank of Japan Meeting) sets the intermediate-term risks for a shift from neutral to bearish below 99.51.
For Monday/ Tuesday:
- We see an upside bias for 101.25; break here aims for 101.50, maybe 102.35.
- But below 100.64 opens risk down to 100.07/05/00; break here aims for key 99.51.
The latter August push above 102.66/86 resistances created an intermediate-term base to shift the intermediate-term outlook to a broader range theme.
Short/ Intermediate-term Range Parameters: We see the range defined by 105.62 and 99.51.
Range Breakout Challenge
- Upside: Above 105.62 aims higher for 107.49 and 109.26.
- Downside: Below 99.51 sees risk lower for 99.00 and 96.57.
4 Hour USDJPY Chart
