A broader theme of US strength has resurfaced across most G10 currencies over the past week, into early September (apart from against the still strong Japanese Yen). Here we look at USD strength and gains against the Australian & New Zealand Dollars and the GB Pound.
AUDUSD
- A plunge lower Friday after the .7084/88 area capped (back from .7062/63) earlier in the week, to reinforce the prior probe below .7000 and leave the Monday risk still lower.
- Furthermore, the previous reversal below the long term trend line from 2001, leaves re-energized bearish pressures into September.
Short/ Intermediate-term Outlook – Downside Risks:
- We see a negative tone resurfacing with the bearish threat to .6857
- Break sees .6645 and .6500
What Changes This? Above .7499 signals a neutral tone, only shifting positive above .7849.
Monthly AUDUSD Chart
NZDUSD
- The previous aggressive plunge to a new cycle and multi-year low last week, through a long term support at .6404 leaves bias for a push lower into early September.
- Furthermore, the Friday push below .6308/00 leaves bias lower Monday.
*We are not quite confident of the low at .6195 with differing data sources indicating different lows.
Short/ Intermediate-term Outlook – Downside Risks:
- We see a negative tone with the bearish threat to longer term targets at .6196/54.
- Overshoot threat is lower to .6000, maybe .5741.
What Changes This? Above .6772 signals a neutral tone, only shifting positive above .6930.
Monthly NZDUSD Chart
GBPUSD
- The anticipated break last week through 1.5327 saw a bearish shift into September
- The Wednesday stall back from 1.5326 and as expected the push below 1.5189/69 firm support reinforces a more negative theme for Monday.
Short/ Intermediate-term Outlook – Downside Risks:
- We now see a more negative tone with the bearish threat to 1.5189/69.
- Below here targets 1.5087 and 1.5000.
What Changes This? Above 1.5509 signals a neutral tone, only shifting positive above 1.5819.
Daily GBPUSD Chart
